Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 106.087317 121.442414 138.760128 159.839808 184.941595 214.044661 250.584829
2025-12-28 89.113363 109.476440 134.534254 168.027449 212.218280 269.379874 350.327886
2026-01-04 78.255328 101.234227 131.400915 174.712083 236.666305 324.281776 461.678627
2026-01-11 70.290369 94.731083 128.525125 179.975804 258.747758 379.076792 585.790225
2026-01-18 63.490841 88.488165 124.567853 182.284561 275.974763 429.166078 715.078182
2026-01-25 57.551011 82.511372 119.876069 182.257340 288.865295 474.159397 847.486806
2026-02-01 51.832447 76.080360 113.503516 178.288221 294.022257 506.264236 964.377599
2026-02-08 46.988175 70.408909 107.543626 173.946481 297.436486 535.386452 1083.469284
2026-02-15 42.959874 65.582395 102.339279 170.047406 300.749793 564.618094 1211.652776
2026-02-22 41.915013 65.464087 104.897210 180.275085 332.808430 659.786292 1530.530807
2026-03-01 39.638837 63.039283 103.176841 182.227699 348.484816 723.137888 1793.729893
2026-03-08 37.695870 60.987774 101.866096 184.727499 365.683863 794.172232 2109.508753
2026-03-15 35.417962 58.222454 99.110153 184.266583 377.022010 855.858694 2433.846633
2026-03-22 34.770410 58.310275 101.668556 195.139137 416.728026 1002.960250 3129.186784
2026-03-29 33.826929 57.756721 102.921312 203.410132 452.096037 1150.465207 3932.360842
2026-04-05 32.738159 56.821821 103.305014 209.799617 484.202960 1300.085002 4865.291727
2026-04-12 31.374147 55.235084 102.195796 212.593263 507.473942 1430.870023 5830.524536
2026-04-19 29.863342 53.234004 100.024905 212.562777 523.002984 1542.053094 6806.758231
2026-04-26 28.066116 50.526882 96.113777 207.780399 523.953400 1602.756335 7568.664542
2026-05-03 26.385405 47.933355 92.219890 202.553585 522.643833 1655.446283 8345.361185
2026-05-10 24.889396 45.609609 88.711392 197.864106 522.115323 1711.681581 9217.054729
2026-05-17 24.800031 46.167343 91.602620 210.174193 578.239422 2023.480914 12396.728512
2026-05-24 23.975964 45.125507 90.794136 212.527652 602.461965 2211.184438 14938.456328